Democrats are hoping that an explosive debate in Florida over abortion rights will drive fired-up voters to the polls this November, amid a wave of new restrictions that are limiting access to the procedure in the state and across the U.S.

But for Florida’s vast and influential Hispanic electorate, it’s not clear if abortion access is going to be the winning issue that Democrats and activists hope it will be. While polls show that many Hispanic Floridians support a measure to protect abortion rights, they are less likely to embrace it than state voters as a whole.

In Florida, a law banning abortion after six weeks of pregnancy — a time when many women don’t yet know they are pregnant — is set to go into effect May 1. Abortion-rights activists in the state are seeking to rally support for a proposed constitutional amendment that would safeguard access to the procedure up to the point of fetal viability – the point at which the baby can survive out of the womb, generally understood to be around 24 weeks of pregnancy – or when deemed medically necessary by a physician.

That measure will need to win at least 60% of the vote in November to be enshrined into state law. Early polling shows that the proposal is more popular than not among Florida voters: One recent poll found that more than half of all Floridians would back Amendment 4, while another poll showed that roughly half would support it.

Nationwide, more than half of Hispanics believe abortion should be legal in most or all cases, according to a July 2022 Pew Research Center polling. But research shows that abortion access might enjoy a smaller share of support among Florida Hispanics.

A survey from Florida International University and the marketing firm Adsmovil asked Hispanics in Florida whether doctors should be banned from performing abortions after six weeks except in cases of rape, incest or human trafficking. Thirty-five percent of those polled said they strongly or somewhat agreed, while the other 36% strongly or somewhat disagree; 27% said they neither agree nor disagree. Meanwhile, a higher percentage of Hispanics at the national level, 42%, said they are against banning abortions after six weeks except for rape, incest or human trafficking; 34% were in favor.

Floridians Protecting Freedom, a citizen-led coalition, sponsored the amendment and gathered nearly a million signatures to get it on the ballot. But Hispanics, who make up over a quarter of the state’s population, will be critical to getting the amendment on the books.

“Latinos make or break elections in Florida. The Latino vote is so important,” said Michelle Quesada, the vice president of communications for Planned Parenthood of southeast and north Florida.

Hispanics on the abortion amendment

A USA Today/Ipsos poll this month found that only 34% of Hispanic Floridians would vote in favor of the abortion ballot measure, while 42% said they were not in favor of legalizing abortion. That’s a statistically significant difference compared to White and Black Floridians, who said they would vote in favor of the measure at 57% and 67% respectively.

Polling from Boston’s Emerson College released earlier this month found that Florida Hispanics are less likely than White Floridians to support the proposed abortion rights amendment. Wile nearly 39% said that they would vote in favor of the ballot measure in November, about 25% said they plan to oppose it. Another 36% said that they’re still undecided on the proposal.

Yet a majority of Florida Hispanics – nearly 57% – also said that the state’s six-week abortion ban is too strict.

U.S. Sen. Rick Scott, a Republican and former Florida governor who’s up for reelection this year, said that the proposed constitutional amendment is out of step with where most Florida Hispanics are on the issue of abortion.

“Hispanics are compassionate people,” Scott told the Miami Herald. “They actually have faith, they cherish life.”

While Scott has said that he would have signed the six-week abortion ban into law if he were still governor, he argued that most voters would accept a ban on the procedure after 15 weeks. He also said that lawmakers should take steps to support access to contraceptives and safeguard reproductive treatments like in vitro fertilization.

“If you look at where the consensus is in our state, the consensus isn’t even close to where the Democrats are. The consensus is around 15 weeks with exceptions for rape incest and life of the mother.”

“Latinos make or break elections”

Quesada said there is polling to suggest different outcomes in November, and that the survey results are constantly evolving. One UnidosUS poll from November 2023 showed that 65% of Florida Hispanics “oppose efforts to restrict/ban abortion rights, no matter their own beliefs on the issue.”

The Floridians Protecting Freedom coalition has several initiatives to mobilize and educate Hispanics on the amendment, including regularly hosting Spanish-language volunteer calls and deploying organizers on the ground to spread the word about the proposal, Quesada said.

“I think many Latino families know what it’s like to live under an authoritarian government, they know what it’s like to live under a government that tries to control our lives and restrict our freedom. They understand what’s at stake with Amendment 4,” Quesada said.

Quesada emphasized that Hispanics are not a monolith, which means that engagement that the coalition is attempting to have with Florida Hispanics is not one-size-fits all. Studies have shown that language fluency and religious beliefs can play a role in how Hispanics view abortion. For example, the Pew Research Center found that over two-thirds of Hispanic evangelicals believe abortion should be outlawed in most or all cases, while the majority of Spanish-dominant Hispanics hold the same view.

Studies show that Hispanic women experience reproductive and sexual-health disparities, including higher rates of cervical cancer, HIV and other STIs, and unintended pregnancies. A March of Dimes report from August 2023 also found that there were several counties that were maternity health care deserts in Florida. In Okeechobee County, which is over a quarter Hispanic, there was low access to maternity care for expectant mothers and their babies.

“These are laws that are affecting people and putting people in harm’s way. People that are not able to stay pregnant because of health conditions, birth control failing, or having several children at home. Every reason is a valid reason and people need to be able to make these decisions,” Quesada said.

Marijuana on the ballot

Another proposed amendment on the Florida ballot in November would legalize recreational use of marijuana. If it passes, adults 21 and over could buy and use marijuana in Florida. Smart & Safe Florida, a political action committee that sponsored the measure, gathered over 1 million signatures to get the measure on the ballot.

Floridians in general appear to be supportive of legalizing recreational marijuana. A poll from Ipsos puts 56% of Floridians in favor of the measure, while another from Florida Atlantic University says 47% would vote for it

Gov. Ron DeSantis has been vocal about his opposition to the measure, saying that if the amendment passes Florida’s streets will reek of marijuana. Smart & Safe Florida did not respond to multiple interview requests from the Miami Herald. But the group’s lawyers have argued that the governor and the Legislature could establish a regulatory framework should the amendment pass that could eventually serve as a national model.

However, Hispanics in the state don’t appear to be in favor of legalizing pot compared to other voters in the state. While 55% of White Floridians and 65% of Black Floridians said they are in favor of the amendment, only 32% of Florida Hispanics said the same, according to the Ipsos/USA Today poll. Nearly half, or 45%, said they would oppose it. However, the researchers noted that the sample size of Black Floridians in the poll was small.

An FAU/Mainstreet Research survey found that only about 30% of Hispanics would vote in support of the measure, while roughly 45% oppose it. One-quarter of respondents said they were unsure. However, FAU researchers noted that the survey was not designed with representative samples of each smaller group in mind and that subsamples have higher margins of error.

Republicans in Florida are skeptical that Democrats will be able to gain the momentum they are looking for with the proposed amendments come November.

“They want to say that abortion and marijuana are these silver bullets,” said Kevin Cabrera, a Miami-Dade County commissioner who served as Florida state director for Donald Trump’s 2020 presidential campaign. “I just don’t see it happening.”

This story was originally published April 26, 2024, 10:43 AM.

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