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It’s still too soon to judge the fallout from the presidential debatebonus365, but the polls already suggest that Kamala Harris might be poised to gain.

The initial surveys of people who watched the debate found that most viewers thought she won, and the candidate deemed the winner in the post-debate surveys usually tends to gain in the polls.

The first few polls taken entirely since Tuesday’s debate show her faring better than polls taken beforehand. If history is any guide, it will still be a few more days — perhaps another week — until the full scope of any post-debate bounce becomes evident.

This time around, there’s another unpredictable element: what the authorities have described as a second attempted assassination of Donald J. Trump. There’s no way of knowing yet how voters might react, but if it refocuses the conversation away from the debate, it could put an early dent in Ms. Harris’s bounce.

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SKIP ADVERTISEMENTState of the race

Overall, Vice President Harris leads Mr. Trump by three percentage points nationwide, according to The New York Times’s polling average. Already, that’s about a point better for Ms. Harris than our average Wednesday.

The contest is even tighter in the critical battleground states, where no candidate leads by even a single percentage point in enough states to win the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.

Polling Leader If Polls miss like they did in … 2022 2020 U.S. National +3 Harris +2 Harris +1 Trump Wis. Wisconsin +3 Harris +5 Harris +7 Trump Nev. Nevada +2 Harris +4 Harris +2 Trump Mich. Michigan +1 Harris +7 Harris +4 Trump Pa. Pennsylvania +1 Harris +6 Harris +4 Trump N.C. North Carolina +1 Harris +2 Harris +3 Trump Ariz. Arizona Even +3 Harris +3 Trump Ga. Georgia +1 Trump +1 Trump +2 Trump Includes polling as of Sept. 16. See the latest polling averages »

Electoral votes counting only states where a candidate leads by 3 or more:

226 Harris219 Trump

Electoral votes if current polling translates perfectly to results (it won’t):

292 Harris246 Trump

Electoral votes if state polls miss in the same way they did in 2020:

226 Harris312 Trump

Electoral votes if state polls miss in the same way they did in 2022:

303 Harris235 Trump Includes polling as of Sept. 16. See the latest polling averages »

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